地价大跌了，房价会怎样？
If the price of land drops, what about housing prices?

地价大跌了，房价会怎样？

1月24日，国家统计局公布了2007年国民经济运行数据，经初步核算，2007年全国70个大中城市房屋销售价格比上年上涨了7.6百分点，涨幅提高了2.1个百分点。

从表面上来看，房价仍在上涨。但是，有关部门发布的房价涨幅数据遗漏了交易量急剧萎缩的现实——国家统计局和发改委发布的数据属于抽样统计，无法反映具体的交易量。从去年9月份开始，我国房地产市场交易量就在迅速下降，一些炒房者有房卖不出去，这正显示出住房这一大宗商品的投资弱点：变现难！

房价正在开始步入下跌周期。就在国家统计局发布2007年国民经济运行数据的前一天，备受瞩目的上海市杨浦区新江湾城F 地块公开出让：铁狮门房地产基金以底价67.5亿元、折合楼板价（出让总价/总建筑面积）仅为7502元/平方米成交。这一成交数据不仅震惊了上海业内，使全国的地产商也受到不小的震撼。去年12月，上海某媒体作了如下报道：位于上海市杨浦区北端的新江湾城F地块，业内人士估计成交价格约在180亿元左右，将有望改写全国最贵地价纪录。

从180亿到67.5亿元，这无疑是一次地价的大跳水。如果从另一组数据来对比，可能更为直观。2007年11月8日，杨浦区新江湾城的D3地块被仁恒地产公司收入囊中。该地块出让总价为13.01亿元，相当于楼板价2万元/平方米。如今地价已从2万元/平方米骤降到 7502元/平方米，这仅仅发生在两个月之后！

不可否认，这次土地拍卖有门槛抬高的因素，但即使剔除这一点，地价的下跌速度之快依然远远超出了市场的预期。并且，这种情况并非仅在上海才出现。1月7日，北京市国土局公布了通州区三块地的成交结果，最低楼面地价仅309元/平方米，这一创下北京新低的成交均价传递出来的信息同样令业内震惊。除此之外，去年最火热的“地王”这个词也在渐渐淡出人们的视野。

地价下跌是一个重要信号。此前，业内不少人之所以对房价保持坚挺抱以信心，主要是以地价的坚挺为依据的。“地王”的不断涌现所营造出来的面粉价格贵于面包价的现象，的确加大了人们对未来房价将持续上涨的预期。然而，经济学发展史用无数实例告诉我们，面粉比面包贵的现象是不可能长久的。诚如万科董事局主席王石在接受央视采访时所说：“面粉贵过面包的现象不可能持续。”

事实上，面粉价格高于面包价格本身就已经为房价的下跌埋下了隐患。这一点从房价的运行周期中可以清晰地看出来。经济运行具有一定的周期性，住房作为经济体中的一个组成部分，它的走势同样存在着周期性特征。这一点是难以改变的。在过去的10年中，我国的房价处在一个上涨周期中，那么，这一上行轨道是否发生了变化呢？就房地产市场而言，当房价从上涨轨道步入下跌轨道的时候，它一般会呈现出如下征兆：

其一，房价持续多年上涨，在上涨周期末期，房价上涨突然加速，涨速之快到了令人目不暇接的地步。购房者难以承受，民生压力日益累积，民众的不满上升。购房者难以承受，民生压力日益累积，民众的不满上升。其二，投机者日益增多，从房价的推波助澜者变成购房的主体。其三，地价疯狂上涨，楼板价格远远超出周边的房价，即面粉价格远远超过面包价格，进一步推动房价上涨。其四，由于房价持续快速上涨损害民生、累积泡沫，政府从民生和经济可持续发展的角度考虑，不断出台严厉的调整政策。尤其是促使银行提高贷款利率和首付，严厉抑制炒房等行为。并且，政府加大对社会保障性住房的投资力度。

对比之下不难发现，这些特征完全符合我国房价的走势。2007年，深圳市房价半年的涨幅就远远超过了百分之50，其中，大部分是投机性购房，而且，“地王”在全国各地密集涌现。国家不断出台严厉的调控政策，并加大了实施住房保障的力度。

因此，从房价的运行周期来看，地价的下跌乃是房价步入下跌周期的开始。它同样要经过两个阶段：第一个阶段，地价快速下降，一直降到低于周边房价的程度，即面粉价格首先低于面包的价格。第二个阶段，地价下跌带动周边房价的下跌，进而，为地价的下跌腾出更大的空间，在此压力之下，地价进一步下跌。这两个阶段相互交替，构成一个个小的循环。之后，地价回归到它本来的价值，房价也自动挤压掉其中的泡沫，逐渐在调整过程中探底、趋稳，等这一周期走完，再逐渐步入下一个周期。

一些开发商希望抵抗这个周期，而经济学原理告诉我们，一些内在的调整冲动必须经过释放，这种力量是很难抗拒得了的。以地价为例，那些前期以高于面包的价格拿下地块的开发商，他们能囤积土地不开发以抵御地价的下跌，等待下一个周期的到来吗？不能。我国法律明确规定，土地闲置满两年将依法无偿收回。土地闲置满一年不满两年的，按出让或划拨土地价款的百分之20征收土地闲置费。即使没有这些规定，在房价步入下跌轨道的时候，囤积土地的成本也是非常高的。别的不说，仅几十亿元的资金利息是多少？损失掉的机会成本又将是多少？

地价的下跌是房价步入下跌周期的开始，而住房保障体系的完善可能加速房价下跌周期形态的完成。从温家宝总理和建设部高级官员最近的讲话来看，将中等收入者纳入住房保障体系已经没有任何悬念，这无疑将大大减少对市场化的商品房的需求量，进一步拉低房价。开发商等市场主体，应该正确看待住房市场发生的这些变化，顺应大势，及时调整自己的经营策略，而不是采取对抗的心态，继续囤积居奇，哄抬房价，恶化民生。那样最终只会损及自身利益。

[来源文章]

If the price of land drops, what about housing prices?

On January 24 the National Bureau of Statistics announced the 2007 national economy statistics, after a preliminary audit, in 2007 the nations largest 70 cities housing sales prices, compared to the year before, increased 7.6 percent with a maximum daily increase of 2.7 percent.

On the surface it appears that housing prices are still increasing. However, related government departments published data for the rise and fall of housing prices overlook the reality that some business transactions suddenly wither up —— the National Bureau of Statistics and Development and Reform Committee published data can be classified as sample statistics and are unable to reflect the actual number of transactions. Since September last year, the Chinese real estate market transaction quantity has rapidly decreased and some real estate speculators sold houses and did not move out. This illustrates the weak point of this great commodity investment: change is difficult!

Housing costs are at the moment starting to enter a falling cycle. Right in the National Bureau of Statistics 2007 national economic movements data published a day ago, to fully appreciate this focus on the suburb of Xinjiang Bay in Yangpu District, Shanghai, when the F land parcel was made public it allowed Tieshimen Real Estate Fund in order to get a low price of 6.75 billion yuan, converted the building price (divide total price by total area) to be only 7,502 yuan. This transaction data not only shocked Shanghai's business community, it the national real estate industry also received a shock that was not small. Last December, some of the media in Shanghai made reports as follows: located in Xinjiang Bay at the northern end of Yangpu District in the City of Shanghai the F land parcel, local business figures estimate that the agreed price is about 18 billion yuan and will revise the national record for land price.

From 18 billion to 6.75 billion, this is without a doubt a big dive in land price. If we look at this from another set of data, we may have an even more direct observation. On November 8, 2007, D3 land parcel in Xinjiang Bay, Yangpu District was pocketed by the Renheng real estate company. The above mentioned land parcel was sold for a total price of 1.301 billion yuan, equivalent to a price of 20,000 yuan per square meter. Recently, the land price has already suddenly fallen from 20,000 yuan per square meter to 7502 yuan per square meter, which happened in barely two months!

It cannot be denied that this land auction was a factor in raising the threshold but, even if this factor is excluded, the speed that the price of land tumbled still far and away exceeded the expectations of the market. Furthermore, this kind of situation has not only emerged in Shanghai. On January 7, the Homeland Department in the City of Beijing announced that the results of sales of three parcels of land in Tongzhou District the lowest price was 309 per square meter, which is a new average low for Beijing to emerge from the news and has led the business community to be equally astonished. Apart from this, last year the very hot word “Land King” is gradually and indifferently leaving people's field of view.

The falling price of land is an important signal. Before this, because of real estate prices not a few people in the industry maintained strong, bullish confidence and the primary because of the bullish land prices. The unceasing emergence of “land kings” led the creation of the phenomenon of the price of flour being more expensive than the price of bread, which has indeed led to people's expections of the continued increase in real estate prices. However, economics development history has countless examples that tell us that the phenomenon of flour being more expensive than bread can be long term. Chengruwanke board member and bureau chairperson Wang Shi when giving an interview with CCTV said, “The phenomenon of flour being more expensive than bread cannot be sustained.”

In reality, flour being more expensive than bread is a hidden danger buried beneath real estate prices. This point can be seen distinctly from the movement of housing prices. The movements in the economy posess certainty in their cyclic nature. Since housing acts as a component part of the body of the economy its movements and influences are the same and, in particular, these exist for cyclic properties. This point is difficult to change. During the last ten years, China's housing prices have been an upward cycle so, will this upward orbit change? To speak of the real estate market, when housing prices are moving from marching on an upward track to a falling track, then they will usually demonstrate the following warning signs:

First, housing prices will have sustained many years of upward movement, in the last stage of the upward cycle housing price increases suddenly accelerate and the increasing speed is quickly inverted creating too many conditions for the eye to take in. It is difficult for home buyers to bear, increasingly putting more pressure on people's livelihood, raising dissatisfation amongst the populace. Second, speculators increase day by day, these people 'making a stormy sea stormier' with housing prices now changing to real estate agents. Third, real estate prices increase madly, the price per square meter far exceeds housing prices in nearby areas, right away the price of flour far exceeds the price of bread, and this goes one step further to push housing prices upward. Fourth, because of the harm to people's welfare by sustained and rapidly increasing housing prices, accumulating a bubble, the government from the point of view of consideration for the people's welfare and economically sustainable development unceasingly lays out strict policy adjustments. Especially to urge banks to raise loan interest rates and downpayments, strictly suppress real estate speculation and similar actions. Furthermore, the government has increased social safeguards for the vigor of real estate investment.

In contrast, the material below is not difficult to find, these characteristics are completely in keeping with with the movements and tendencies of China's housing prices. In 2007 in the City of Shenzhen, the rise and fall in housing prices far exceeded fifty percent, amongst which the majority were speculative house purchases and, moreover, “land kings” emerging in every part of the country were concentrated. The nation continually layed out changes to tighten policy and, furthermore, increase implementation of safeguards for vigor in the housing segment.

For this reason, looking at the cyclic movement of housing prices, falling land prices mark the beginning of the falling cycle of housing prices. It will go through the same two stages: in the first stage, with the speed of falling land prices, they will continuously fall to the low point of housing prices, when flour will become cheaper than bread. In the second stage falling land prices will drive housing prices to fall and then, to provide space for the falling land prices moving even faster and under this pressure land prices will fall a step further. These two stages each acting in turn form a tight loop. Afterwards, it will return to its original value, housing prices will automatically be sqeezed lower with the bubble, and gradually in an adjustment process probe the bottom, quickly stabilizing, so completing the cycle, and then entering another cycle.

A few real estate developers hope to defy this cycle but economics theory tells us that the intrinsic impetus to adjust must be released and that this kind of power is very difficult to oppose. Did some real estate developers make an example of housing prices in early stages, ue prices higher than bread to hold some land parcels, and hoard land but not develop it to withstand falling land prices and wait for the next cycle to arrive? They could not. Chinese law clearly regulates that land lying idle for a full two years will be reclaimed without compensation. Land lying idle for a full year but less than two years will be restrained or subject to a tariff of 20 percent for idle land.

Even if there were not these regulations, when housing prices entered the next cycle the cost of hoarding land would also be very high. Not to mention other matters, how much is just the interest on several billion yuan? How much would the lost opportunity cost be?

The falling price of land is the first step for the price of housing into the start of a falling cycle and, furthermore, a system for guaranteeing housing would very likely accelerate or accomplish the form of a housing price falling cycle. From the point of view of recent talks by Premier Wen Jiabao and a high level official in the Building Department, in the future mid-level income earners will be brought into line with the housing guarantee system for which there is already no debate. This will no doubt greatly reduce the demand arising from transformation of housing to a market driven commodity and further reduce the cost of housing. Real estate developers and other market agents, should properly look at these changes taking place in the housing market, comply with wider conditions, and promptly adjust their own operating strategy rather than adopt an opposing attitude, continuing to hoard residences, deceptively raise housing prices and worsen people's livelihoods. That approach can only harm one's own interests.

[Original article]