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我国探月“嫦娥计划”第一颗卫星“嫦娥一号”已定于10月下旬择机发射，据中国气象局国家空间天气监测预警中心预测，10月下旬，空间天气整体平静，对卫星发射、入轨的影响很小，利于“嫦娥一号”发射。
“嫦娥一号”将依次经过大气层、内外辐射带、磁层、磁鞘和太阳风等多个完全不同的空间天气区域，入轨后还将随着月球的公转周期性地穿越磁层和周边区域。
国家空间天气监测预警中心预测：10月24日至31日，地磁活动可能出现活跃或小磁暴，但空间天气整体平静，出现突发性太阳活动事件的可能性不大，对卫星发射、入轨的影响很小。但10月16日出现的猎户座流星雨将于10月21日左右达到极大值，届时可视流星流量可能达到每小时25个。流星体对飞行器的安全有潜在的威胁，同时流星在大气层中烧蚀产生的暂时性等离子体径迹（流星尾迹）对无线电波传播可能会有轻微影响，猎户座流星雨将在11月7日前后结束。（中国气象报社/王素琴）
中国探月“嫦娥计划”第一颗卫星“嫦娥一号”将于2007年10月下旬发射，入轨后将进行为期一年的绕月观测。在整个发射、入轨到绕月飞行中，卫星将穿越许多不同的空间天气区域，卫星的轨道预测、星体安全、星地通讯和测控等均需考虑空间天气的影响。
国家空间天气监测预警中心的专家指出，“嫦娥一号”将穿越地球低层大气、高层大气、内外辐射带、地球磁层、磁鞘区和弓激波等多个特性完全不同的空间天气区域， 在绕月飞行成功后还将随月球不停地从地球磁层中穿进穿出，空间天气的影响不容忽视。目前，太阳非常平静，预计在10 月下旬至11月，发生大太阳爆发的可能性很小；太阳冕洞发出的高速太阳风会随太阳自转周期性地影响地球，严重时会引发磁暴并导致电离层暴和热层暴，从而会影响卫星轨道、通讯和测控等。
专家指出，空间天气在三个方面可能会对“嫦娥一号”的发射造成影响：一是虽然产生太阳风暴的可能性小，但是仍然不能排除这种可能性；二是冕洞高速流周期性影响地球，导致周期性地磁活跃，甚至地磁暴；三是在10月下旬和11月初会有流星雨出现，对航天器安全有潜在的威胁。 （王素琴）
[来源文章]
October 19, 2007
Source: Xinhua Net
The first satellite for the China's lunar exploration “Chang E Plan”, named “Chang E No. 1,” has been scheduled to launch in late October. According to the China Meteorological Administration Space and Weather Monitoring and Warning Center's prediction for late October, space and weather will be completely calm for the satellite launch, with anything on track to influence it being very small, which is favorable for the “Chang E No. 1” launch.
“Chang E No. 1” will in succession pass through the atmosphere, the inner and outer radition belts, the magnetosphere, magnetic sheath, and solar wind, each different space and weather areas, to enter a course that will follow the moon's orbital revolution and periodicity and escape the magnetosphere and peripheral areas.
The National space and Weather Monitor and Warning Center forecast: October 24 to 31 vigorous earth based magnetic activity will probably occur or there may be small magnetic storms but space weather is on the whole tranquil. The probability of emergence of sudden solar activity is not great and anything on track to influence the satellite launch is very small. However, on October 16 a meteor shower in Orion occurred and on about October 21 it will reach a very large size, at which time the meteor flow rate may reach 25 per hour. The meteor body is a hidden danger for aircraft, at the same time the meteors in the atmosphere will be burned and consumed producing temporary plasma path traces (meteor tail traces), which could have a slight influence on radio broadcasts. The Orion meteor shower will finish around November 7.
The first satellite “Chang E No. 1” of the Chinese lunar exploration “Chang E Plan” will be launched in the late part of October to enter a course that will lead to allow it to carry out a period of one year orbiting the moon for observations. Earth-space communications and control needs to consider space weather influence on all conditions during the entire launch and in the flight to get on course to orbit the moon, including the satellite passing through many space weather areas, the satellite course forecast, and safety from celestial bodies.
An expert from the National Space Weather Monitoring and Warning Center pointed out that “Chang E No. 1” will pass through the Eath's lower atmosphere, upper atmosphere, inner and outer radiation belts, the Earth's Magnetosphere, magnetic sheath area, and bow shock wave, which are many and all completely different space weather areas. After successfully travelling in orbit around the moon it will follow the moon without stopping and passing in and out of the Eath's Magnetosphere, where space weather's influence cannot be ignored. At present, from late October to November, the Sun will be very tranquil, the probability of a solar burst is very small. High speed solar winds from solar spots occurring may follow the Sun's rotation periodicity, influencing the Earth, and at serious times may initiate magnetic bursts and create Ionosphere bursts and Thermosphere violence, thus can influence satellite trajectory, communications, and control.
The expert pointed out that three aspects of space weather could have an influence on the launch of “Chang E No. 1”: firstly, even though the chance of a solar wind burst is small, we still cannot rule out this kinds of possibility; secondly, high speed flows from solar spot periodicity can influence Earth, leading to vigorous periodicity of Earth's magnetism and even magnetic storms; and, thirdly, in late October to early November there may be meteor showers, presenting spacecraft with a latent danger. (Wang Su Qin)
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